编者按：在美以伊冲突持续升级之际，清华大学战略与安全研究中心研究员周波近日在南华早报发表评论，直指美国总统特朗普对伊战略的高风险与低回报：既难以转化为国内政治红利，也无助于稳定对华关系。周波认为，在战争目标模糊、资源与时间受限的现实约束下，美国中东政策的结构性困境愈发凸显，而中国在动荡中保持克制与韧性，其“以静制动”的战略耐力正受到更多关注。

【文/ 周波，翻译/北京对话 李雨琪】

英国著名军事战略家迈克尔·霍华德曾有一句名言：预测战争不是为了准确无误，而是为了避免酿成大错。美国总统特朗普已然犯下大错，无人知晓他为何发动这场与以色列联手针对伊朗的战争。

特朗普在其“真相社交”平台上发文称，“伊朗海军已覆灭，空军已瓦解，导弹、无人机及其他一切均遭摧毁，其领导层已从地球上抹去”，这一说法或许部分正确。尽管明显夸大其词，但美国确实对伊朗造成了重创。然而，他声称“我们拥有无与伦比的火力、用之不竭的弹药，且时间充裕”，这显然是错误的。

美国既没有用之不竭的弹药，也没有充裕的时间。与伊朗开战不到两周，《金融时报》就报道称，美国已消耗了原本可用数年的关键弹药，其中包括大量“战斧”巡航导弹。而面对即将到来的美国中期选举，特朗普也并无足够时间可言。

特朗普现在几乎没有选择：即使他宣布胜利并希望就此撤军，伊朗也不会善罢甘休。德黑兰已失无所失，能够利用其源源不断生产的无人机和导弹，继续袭击以色列以及位于其他国家的美军基地。

这场战争引出了一个关键问题：美国是否拥有一套连贯的国家战略？答案是否定的。如果说阿富汗战争是美国的一场“永久战争”，那么中东就是美国永恒的战场。自20世纪80年代以来，美国已至少在该地区卷入六场战争。

Planet高清卫星图显示，伊朗击中了卡塔尔“铺路爪”雷达的一个阵面社交媒体

以色列可谓美国的“死穴”。鉴于紧密的美以关系和亲以游说团体的影响力，历届美国政府都支持以色列，区别仅在于支持程度不同而已。对美国而言，从中东脱身将比退出俄乌冲突更为艰难。从这个意义上说，以色列的影响力超过了美国所有欧洲盟友之和。

以色列是迄今为止的“赢家”，其报告中的军队伤亡人数低于美国（美军至少已有13名士兵阵亡）。以色列最大的成就是将美国拖入一场地区战争，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡暗示，这场冲突正使以色列崛起为全球超级大国。

然而，以色列不会成为真正的赢家。自2023年10月哈马斯袭击后，以色列在加沙进行的不分青红皂白的大规模杀戮，使其国际形象急剧下降。巴勒斯坦问题在全球20亿穆斯林（约占世界人口25%）心中占据核心地位。任何针对巴勒斯坦人的不公，都将赢得全球穆斯林社会的抗议声援，这是像以色列这样的弹丸之国无法改变的现实。

此外，美国长期以来对以色列的支持似乎也在动摇。根据盖洛普2月份的一项民意调查，同情巴勒斯坦人民的美国人比例已超过同情以色列人的比例。

特朗普宣布将他对中国的访问推迟“一个月左右”并不令人意外。倘若他最终成行，考虑到美国行动已对中国利益造成的损害，我不知道他将如何向中方解释这场战争的合理性。

如今，很少有商船敢在极其危险的霍尔木兹海峡水域航行，而每次派遣美军舰只为区区一两艘船只护航并不划算。特朗普呼吁其他国家加入美国海军共同护航，但响应者寥寥。这与2008年发起的印度洋多国反海盗行动不同，当时包括中国在内的25个国家海军共同努力稳定了局势。

中国的损失显而易见，但并非不可承受，这从其相对稳定的股市中可见一斑。2025年，中国进口的原油中有42%来自中东；而其中仅约13%来自伊朗。

近年来，中国通过扩大可再生能源应用范围，降低了对外部能源的依赖。据彭博社援引中央电视台的报道，2025年中国的发电量是美国的两倍多，并远超欧盟、俄罗斯、印度和日本年度用电量的总和。

经过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮遭到攻击半岛电视台

陈凯尔2月份在《外交事务》杂志上发表的一篇题为“中国正在以静制动获胜”的文章认为，如果华盛顿继续其反复无常的国际行为，北京方面不会急于利用这一局势，因为无需这样做。此言不差。据报道，数十艘途经霍尔木兹海峡的船只已更新其目的地信号，以表明其船籍为中国或与中国相关。

这对北京而言是无意的广告：安全与中国相连，混乱与美国挂钩。1994年，美国总统国家安全事务助理安东尼·莱克曾将朝鲜、古巴、伊朗、利比亚和伊拉克列为“流氓国家”。今天，伊朗和美国相比，谁的行为更像一个“流氓国家”？还有哪位美国官员能继续奢谈“基于规则的国际秩序”？

特朗普访华时间还不确定，但有一件事是确定的：战争不会结束。他的自信或将处于低点。中国将一如既往地保持冷静。特朗普的关税战压不垮中国人民，他空洞的奉承也难以迷惑他们。

The eminent British military strategist Michael Howard famously said that the purpose of forecasting wars is not to get it right, but to avoid getting it terribly wrong. US President Donald Trump has already got it terribly wrong. No one knows why he launched a war with Israel against Iran.

Trump may have been partly correct when he posted on Truth Social that, “Iran’s Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, missiles, drones and everything else are being decimated, and their leaders have been wiped from the face of the earth”. While clearly exaggerations, the US has inflicted heavy damage. Yet, he was clearly wrong in claiming, “We have unparalleled firepower, unlimited ammunition, and plenty of time.”

The US has neither unlimited ammunition nor plenty of time. Less than two weeks into the war with Iran, the Financial Times reported that the US had expended years’ worth of key munitions, including large numbers of Tomahawk cruise missiles. And Trump doesn’t have plenty of time ahead of the coming US midterm elections.

He has few options now: even if he did declare victory and wished merely to withdraw, Iran would not allow it. Tehran has little left to lose. Iran can keep striking Israel and US military bases in other countries using drones and missiles it can continuously produce.

This war raises a critical question: does the US have a coherent national strategy? The short answer is no. If the war in Afghanistan was one of the US’ “forever wars”, the Middle East is America’s permanent battlefield. Since the 1980s, the US has been involved in at least six wars in the region.

Israel is the US’ Achilles’ heel. Given the close US-Israel relationship and the influence of the pro-Israel lobby, successive US administrations have supported Israel, differing only in the degree of support. For the US, withdrawing from the Middle East will be harder than exiting the war in Ukraine. In this sense, Israel’s leverage exceeds that of all the US’ allies in Europe combined.

Israel is a winner so far. Reported casualties among its armed forces are lower than those of the US, which has lost at least 13 soldiers. Israel’s greatest achievement is dragging the US into a regional war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insinuated that the conflict is turning Israel into a global superpower.

Yet Israel won’t be the real winner. Its global image has deteriorated sharply since its massive and indiscriminate killing in Gaza following the Hamas attacks in October 2023. The Palestinian issue is central to the world’s 2 billion Muslims, who make up roughly 25 per cent of the global population. Any injustice against the Palestinians will draw support from the global Muslim community – a reality a small country like Israel cannot alter.

Moreover, the US’ long-standing support for Israel looks shaky. According to a Gallup poll in February, more Americans sympathise with the Palestinian people than with Israelis.

Trump’s announcement about delaying his China visit by “a month or so” is no surprise. If he does come, I wonder how he can justify the war to the Chinese leadership, given the harm US actions have inflicted on China’s interests.

Few commercial ships are now sailing through the extremely dangerous waters in the Strait of Hormuz, and deploying US warships to escort just one or two vessels each time is not cost-effective. Trump’s call for other countries to join the US Navy to escort ships has fallen on deaf ears. This is not like the multilateral anti-piracy operations in the Indian Ocean that were launched in 2008, when navies from over 25 countries including China joined efforts to stabilise the situation.

China’s losses are obvious, but not unbearable, as reflected in its relatively stable stock market. In 2025, 42 per cent of China’s imported crude oil came from the Middle East; only about 13 per cent of that total came from Iran.